By SUNTV Global Channel | February 5, 2026
Nigeria is once again staring into a familiar but terrifying mirror: the spectre of military coups.
Barely 65 years after independence and over two decades into civilian rule, revelations of an alleged coup plot targeting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and top government officials have shaken the nation, exposing deep structural, ethnic and political fault lines that democracy has failed to heal.
Security authorities have confirmed that disgruntled soldiers planned a violent overthrow of the government, with reported intentions to assassinate key figures including the President, Vice President Kashim Shettima and senior ministers. Defence authorities disclosed that the Chief of Defence Staff himself was marked for arrest or assassination had he resisted the plot.
At a time when Nigerians are battling hunger, soaring food prices, insecurity, unemployment and what many describe as economic suffocation, the message from the plotters was chilling: seize power by force.
Yet history offers a clear verdict—military coups have never solved Nigeria’s problems. They have only deepened them.
A Dangerous Silence
Perhaps more alarming than the plot itself is the muted national reaction.
Across much of the country—especially in the South West, the home region of President Tinubu—there has been little public outrage, no mass protests, no coordinated condemnation from political leaders, traditional institutions or regional socio-cultural organisations.
Apart from a brief remark credited to elder statesman Pa Reuben Fasoranti, silence has largely prevailed.
Political office holders from the South West, including ministers and senior officials, have been conspicuously quiet. Critics say this indifference reflects political complacency, weak grassroots connection and a troubling inability to grasp the gravity of a direct threat to democratic rule.
Observers argue that had a similar plot targeted a Northern president, the response would have been swift, loud and united.
Why Coups Remain Possible
The alleged 2025 plot underscores a painful truth: Nigeria has not made coups impossible—it has merely postponed them.
Security analysts point to a dangerously centralised military architecture. Strategic commands, institutions and operational power remain heavily concentrated in Abuja, Lagos and Kaduna, with Kaduna alone hosting a disproportionate number of military formations.
This structure, experts warn, makes coups easier to plan and execute.
Since 1966, every successful coup in Nigeria has originated from this same power corridor. The lesson is clear: over-centralisation breeds vulnerability.
Lessons from Abroad
Countries that have avoided coups did not rely on luck.
- India, since 1947, structured its military into multiple autonomous commands with no single centre of power.
- The United States diffuses military authority through federalism, state police, and the National Guard.
- China ensures military loyalty to the state and party, not individuals, while routinely purging politically ambitious officers.
Nigeria, by contrast, retains a command structure many analysts describe as rigid, politicised and historically skewed.
Ethnicity, Power and the Coup Tradition
Coups in Nigeria have never been ideologically neutral. They have been deeply entangled with ethnicity and power struggles.
From the first coup of 1966 to the counter-coups, palace intrigues and aborted plots that followed, ethnicity has been a recurring undertone—sometimes explicit, sometimes disguised as reform.
Statistics remain stark: since independence, Northern elites have ruled Nigeria for about 46 of its 65 years, while the South has governed for less than two decades. Yet attempts to violently disrupt a Southern presidency persist, feeding fears of unresolved elite resistance to power rotation.
Analysts note disturbing parallels between coup tactics and the methods of terrorist groups—targeted assassinations, mass destabilisation and a willingness to plunge the country into chaos.
To Try or Not to Try?
Whether the alleged plotters will face open trial remains uncertain.
History offers cautionary tales. Ghana’s experience with Jerry Rawlings showed how public trials can transform coup plotters into populist heroes. Nigerian authorities may prefer closed military proceedings to avoid turning the courtroom into a political stage.
Still, many Nigerians insist justice must be transparent—not just for deterrence, but for democratic accountability.
Beyond Arrests: The Real Question
Security experts warn that arresting coup plotters without addressing root causes is merely cosmetic.
The deeper issues remain:
- Over-centralisation of military and police power
- Economic hardship and institutional injustice
- Ethnic distrust and unresolved grievances
- The absence of a genuine national dialogue
Calls are growing louder for far-reaching restructuring, decentralisation of security forces and a Sovereign National Conference to renegotiate the terms of Nigeria’s coexistence.
Countries with diverse ethnic identities thrive not by suppression, but by negotiated autonomy and equity.
A Final Warning
Nigeria has paid dearly for coups—thousands of lives lost, decades wasted and trust shattered.
The latest plot is not just a security scare; it is a referendum on Nigeria’s unresolved nationhood.
Until power is decentralised, justice made credible and the national question honestly confronted, the ghost of coups will continue to hover.
And next time, the country may not be so lucky.
SUNTV Global Channel — Reporting Nigeria as it is, not as it should be.
